[Qlova]

With this I would say it was stolen. I have never had to file a police report from a stolen package, but some companies make you wait 10 days before classing it as stolen. This might be different in you're country though. Also, although amazon say they do weigh the packages, they don't, so saying it wasn't in the box might sound stupid but it will probably work.

[mothered]

That depends on the carrier. I know fed-ex usually asks for signatures while USPS won't

Carriers also tend to be slack, particularly when delivered towards the end of a hard working week, namely Friday. Exhaustion kicks In and they simply wish to finish their shift.  I've had packages arrive where they've signed It themselves and left.

In terms of the OP's concern, Images hold no ground when an Item Is placed unattended at the front door. Simply say It wasn't there on your return home. Do not provide excuses such as "the Item was stolen". You weren't home, so you're not to know whether It was In fact stolen. As far as you're concerned, It wasn't delivered.

[izzy]

if the account is aged it can be done easily just state that's not your doorstep, say the item never arrived to your home address, if the account is brand new you wont be able to refund a 500$ order

not true it all depends on the method if im honest and understanding how the company works (with cookies etc) and their protocol someone i knew did an alien-ware se on a new account and got away with it but he chose to double dip (get the item again instead of a refund)

[DragonicRek]

One thing to note:
Just because they have photograph evidence of the package arriving at your doorstop doesn't necessarily mean that you received the package.

If you make a strong case which revolves around that idea, then I would believe that you have a fair shot