[mothered]

this the in transit method refunders are offering

I don't see how It's being offered with a sense of surety.

Sounds dumb since the item in Transit would most likely make it to you

Correct.

Given It's already In transit and on Its way to Its destination, It's extremely likely It will arrive.

And when It's cancelled and queried, any rep with half a brain will check the consignment with the carrier and Identify Its whereabouts, then make sure It's delivered accordingly.