[mothered]

The phone page has many reviews saying that the box was empty (probably fellow SE'rs).

Yes, SE'ers (or otherwise) may've claimed It was missing but whether It succeeded, Is a different story altogether.

How likely is that the empty box method is going to work?

196 grams Is a little too heavy, namely If an Investigation Is opened and the weight Is cross-checked against the carrier's records.

On the other hand, Amazon have been pretty slack as of late, so the claim may be approved with minimal disruptions. I'm just outlining the pros and cons by providing a couple of likely scenarios.